By Dare Akogun
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has issued a stark warning that nations must collectively commit to cutting 42% of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The call comes in UNEP’s latest Emissions Gap Report 2024, which highlights that without immediate and substantial action, the world will miss the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C climate target.
The report, titled No More Hot Air… Please!, stresses that a lack of ambition in the upcoming NDCs could see global temperatures rise by between 2.6°C and 3.1°C by the end of the century. Such an increase would have devastating impacts on ecosystems, human health, and economies worldwide.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in a video message accompanying the report, said, “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and the rising frequency of climate disasters. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures, more intense hurricanes, extreme heat turning cities into saunas, and biblical floods.”
The report underscores the urgency of COP29, set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, where countries are expected to scale up their climate ambitions.
Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director, called for global mobilisation on an unprecedented scale, warning that without swift action, the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C could soon be beyond reach.
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before,” Andersen said. “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks to increase action now and set the stage for stronger NDCs.”
The report lays out the dire consequences of delayed action. With emissions continuing to rise reaching a record high of 57.1 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2023 the world must now achieve annual reductions of 7.5% until 2035 to keep warming below 1.5°C.
However, the UNEP report also highlights the technical potential to meet these targets. Solutions such as renewable energy expansion, particularly solar and wind, alongside energy efficiency measures and forest conservation, could significantly reduce emissions.
“For example, renewable energy could provide 27% of the necessary cuts by 2030.
“Achieving these reductions will require unprecedented financial investment, with the report estimating a need for between $0.9 trillion and $2.1 trillion per year in additional funding from 2021 to 2050.
“The G20 nations, responsible for 77% of global emissions in 2023, must lead the charge, ” the report said.
The recent inclusion of the African Union in the G20 raises the share of represented emissions to 82%, further stressing the need for differentiated responsibilities and stronger climate finance support.
Looking ahead, UNEP urges countries to ensure their updated NDCs are robust, transparent, and specific.
These submissions must include all sectors, detail how national sustainable development goals will be met, and provide clear implementation plans with mechanisms for accountability.
For emerging and developing economies, UNEP highlights the importance of securing international support and climate finance to align their development objectives with global emission reduction targets.
